The spread of the corona virus and misjudgment: Related to human behavior
A simple misconception explains why most people minimize the risks of coronavirus and ignore social isolation, wearing masks, and cleaning hands.
Just think, your bank has given you an agreement to double your money every three days. If you invested a dollar today, how long would you be a writer?
Will it happen in a year? In six months? Within 100 days?
The correct answer is: Exactly 60 days after the initial investment, your account balance is exactly 0 1,048,576. In 30 days you have made over $ 1 billion. By the end of the year you will be over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
If your statistics are unusual, you are not alone. Many people make the mistake of trying to figure out the value of things. This flaw is known as the Exponential Growth Basis (EPB), and even though it may seem speculative to you, it can have profound implications for people’s thoughts this year.
Numerous studies have shown that people with EPB are less interested in spreading Code 19 and are more likely to imitate actions such as social isolation, hand washing, and wearing masks.
In other words, a simple calculation error can cost many lives. This means that if we are to try to straighten the elbow and contain the waves of another global epidemic, we must prioritize correcting the trend.
To understand when a particular tendency occurs, one must first know about the different types of growth. The most common is linear or linear growth. Like if you plant three mangoes in your garden every day, you will have six mangoes in two days, nine in three days, and so on.
In contrast, exponential growth is rapidly increasing over time. Perhaps the simplest example is population growth. The more children you have, the faster the population grows. If you have grass in your pond three times a day, other plants will grow slowly.
We know for thousands of years that we can ignore rapid growth. According to an Indian story, a Brahmin named Sisa Ibn Dahir was offered an award for developing a first type of chess. He said he should take a grain of wheat to the first square of the chessboard, two to the second, four to the third, and double each square up to 64 spaces.
The king laughed at Ibn Dahir’s simplicity, but later his steward told him that in this way every grain of wheat would be lost in his land, about 18 446 744 073 709 551 614 grains of wheat. Then he understood.
Scientists began regular research on this trend in the late 2000s. In doing so, they found that most people, like the king of Sisa ibn Dahir, believed that development was often as simple as that. of a line. Therefore, they often overlook the rapid growth of exponential growth.
This first investigation is primarily related to our bank balance. Most savings accounts give you compound interest. For example, when you receive interest on the interest you have already earned. This is a good example of exponential growth, and it means that even a low interest rate will pay off over time.
If your interest rate is 5%, the investment of 1,000,000 now will be 1,050 a year and 10,102.50 two years later, rising to 7,000 in 40 years. However, many people do not know how much money they can earn by investing early so they will not have a retirement problem.
This habit not only reduces their savings, but also leaves many people in bad debt with a debt burden on them. According to a 2008 study, this trend lowers the average debt ratio, or the debt ratio, from 23% to 54%.
Surprisingly, there are all sorts of people who make mistakes, including people with a good education.
Daniela Sele, who studied economics decision-making at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, says that even students who are good at math can make mistakes. ( It may be a good thing, but doesn’t end there.)
This is probably because they rely on inspiration rather than meditation. Even though they know things like compound interest, they forget to use it.
The situation worsens when most people confidently claim that they are growing exponentially but continue to be prejudiced when asked to estimate things like compound interest.
I did a similar study in my book The Intelligence Trap, which found that smart, educated people often have a “blind spot” and are more likely to make mistakes than others. Capacity is low.
Earlier this year, researchers tried to find out if this trend could affect our understanding of various diseases.
According to some epidemiological studies, the number of new cases of COD-19 doubles every three to four days without intervention, so many scientists have suggested that the epidemic is out of control. Blocking should be done quickly before leaving.
In March, Urs Lemmers conducted a study at the University of Bremen with John Crosius and Anne Gast from the University of Cologne and asked people about the possible spread of the disease.
The results of the survey showed that as the virus spread, a significant amount of opportunistic growth of bisexuality occurred in humans, although most people were aware of the rate of increase. In addition, it is important to note that respondents ’beliefs are directly related to their opinions on how best to prevent the spread of the virus.
The worse their estimates, the more likely they are not to understand the need for social isolation. Job Growth Jobs convinced him of government instructions.
Ratuk Banerjee and Priyama Majmada from the Indian Institute of Management Science in Bangalore and Judeep Bhattacharya from Iowa State University did similar research.
Based on their research, it is predicted that the effects of exponential growth base will result in lower adherence to WHO recommendations, including the use of masks, the use of disinfectants, and self-isolation. -influencing.
The good news is that people’s thinking is flexible. When Lemmers and colleagues reminded research participants of the basis for rapid growth and asked them to further calculate growth over a two-week period, people’s estimates of disease spread were improved. He left and as a result, his thinking about distance to society changed.
Lemmers believe the descriptive nature of the virus should be given more emphasis on the scope of the epidemic. ( I think this research shows how media government should report the outbreak in such a situation. )They not only report on today’s numbers and progress over the past week, but also tell us what will happen in the next few days, months pass if it continues to spread this way.
He believes that even a small effort to correct prejudice can pay off. He said the virus had infected five million people in just a few months in the United States, where the epidemic hit hardest.
(If we had surpassed the distortion of opportunistic growth and convinced all Americans of their dangers in March, surely 99% of the people would have followed all possible social distance measures.)